Questing for Atlantis

Several weeks ago I did some statistical analysis of the E-Verify system and the impact a mandate of its use in Maryland would have.

Using two different sets of numbers, one very favorable to E-Verify proponents and one a bit more realistic (but probably still tiled in their favor) I found 4% and 11.9% of all positives being false positives.

Well a new report has come out on the effectiveness of the E-Verify system, so I want to update my numbers using it’s information.

The online tool E-Verify, now used voluntarily by employers, wrongly clears illegal workers about 54 percent of the time, according to Westat, a research company that evaluated the system for the Homeland Security Department.

So, using this new info we find the following:

• The accuracy of the test in identifying illegals as illegals drops from .999/.995 to .46

Therefore, the new formula is (still using the more generous population numbers)

.46(.044)/[.46(.044)+.01(.956)]=.679

1-.679=.321=32.1%

Now continuing to rely on the DHS stated rate of 5.8% positives for illegal status, that gives us a total of 163,374 positives in Maryland. If 32.1% of those positives are in fact false positives it means that 52,443 Marylanders would unjustly be denied the opportunity to work.

The false positive rate was too high before and it’s clearly too high now. We don’t have any business mandating E-Verify use in Maryland or America.

H/T: Greg Siskind